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Herrity, a five-term supervisor whose father, , once dominated Fairfax and regional politics, withdrew from the race on Monday because of the lingering effects of heart surgery.

It was a tough decision that he said was made more difficult by some conservative Republicans’ concerns about the alternative — John Reid, a longtime Richmond radio host who is openly gay with a longtime male partner.

Those concerns boiled over on Friday, when Gov. Glenn Youngkin publicly asked Reid to withdraw his candidacy, four days after clinching the nomination, because of sexually explicit photographs of other men that the governor alleged were linked to the candidate’s personal online accounts. Reid denied that he reposted the photos and refused to step down, saying he was the target of “a fabricated internet lie.”

Amid the uproar, GOP officials canceled Wednesday evening’s scheduled “debut rally” in Glen Allen that was to have featured all three members of the Republican ticket, with Youngkin as a special guest.

On Saturday Reid posted on social media that he was back on the campaign trail.

“Waiting for the next crazy personal attack but ... I’m moving on to meet and listen to voters and to talk about how to make Virginia successful for ALL of us in the coming years. Lots of stops on the trail today!”

On Friday night, Northern Virginia’s Loudoun County Republican Committee backed Reid, posting on X: We support JOHN REID! He is the right man for the job and has been STAUNCHLY CONSERVATIVE for decades.” It added: “We are frustrated by these attacks on his character.”

Northern Virginia political analyst Mark Rozell said the furor could give Republicans a chance to address a potentially greater threat to their chances in statewide races in November: the danger that Trump’s policies pose to the economy in Northern Virginia.

If Reid were to withdraw, “there is an opportunity, perhaps, to find someone from Northern Virginia, which is lacking on the ticket,” Rozell said. “It’s hard to ignore such a vote-rich area that is going through a lot of uncertainty about the effects of the Trump administration’s policies.”

“The election is going to be to some degree about Trump, whether Republicans want that or not,” he said. “And they have a problem in Northern Virginia.”

Chris Saxman, a former Republican delegate who leads the Virginia FREE business organization, questioned “in today’s environment that you’re going to do that much better by having a candidate from a certain region, especially with what’s going on with the federal government.”

Besides, Saxman said, Reid says he’s not dropping out. “They certainly can’t force him off the ticket,” he said.

NOVA headwinds

Herrity, in an interview two days after he withdrew from the lieutenant governor’s race, acknowledged that the Republican gubernatorial candidate, faces political headwinds in Northern Virginia because of Trump’s cuts to the federal workforce and spending in a regional economy that depends on both.

“The actions of the Trump administration are going to make it very difficult for Winsome Sears to do well in Northern Virginia,” he said. “That doesn’t mean she won’t do well. It’s getting people to understand that this is about Virginia; it’s not about the Trump administration.”

At the same time, Herrity said: “I’m not going to sit here and say Trump is not going to be a complication in the race, because he certainly is. ... Anybody who tells you otherwise is not being honest.”

Herrity’s departure had appeared to set the Republican statewide ticket, with Earle-Sears for governor, Reid for lieutenant governor and seeking reelection. As it stands, the GOP ticket has no representative from Northern Virginia, the Washington suburbs that traditionally power the economic engine of the state and provide a major source of political campaign fundraising.

In statewide contests Democrats traditionally run up large margins in Northern Virginia. Youngkin, who lives in Fairfax and led a Republican sweep in 2021, has said the GOP’s winning formula is to trim Democratic margins in Northern Virginia while driving up the GOP’s vote in rural strongholds.

In 2017, Democrat Ralph Northam carried the five largest Northern Virginia localities — Fairfax, Prince William, Loudoun and Arlington counties and the city of Alexandria — by a total of 272,000 votes. Four years later Youngkin cut Democrats’ margin in those localities by 15,600 votes, while winning by 64,000 statewide.

“Republicans need somebody to speak to Northern Virginia and this ticket doesn’t really have that,” said Steve Farnsworth, director of the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington in Fredericksburg.

Youngkin’s effort to push Reid off the ticket could give Republicans a do-over with a candidate from Northern Virginia, but only if it works, Farnsworth said.

“The way it is, is the way it’s going to be, unless Reid says otherwise,” Farnsworth said.

“This controversy is the last thing the Republican Party of Virginia needs right now,” he added. “The party is already facing substantial political headwinds.”

‘A dumpster fire’

The Democrats will pick their nominees for lieutenant governor and attorney general in a June 17 primary. But the Democrats’ nominee for governor, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-7th, represented a swath of Northern Virginia along the Interstate 95 corridor from eastern Prince William County through the Fredericksburg area to Caroline County in the last of her three terms in Congress.

“Her term in Congress absolutely gives her meaningful background in at least part of Northern Virginia,” said Marty Nohe, a former 16-year Prince William supervisor — elected as a Republican — and businessman who now chairs the county Chamber of Commerce.

The chamber has not endorsed any candidates in the November statewide elections, but Nohe said people in the region are focused squarely on the economic fallout from cuts to the federal workforce and private contracts by Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency, which billionaire businessman Elon Musk has led.

“It’s a dumpster fire,” Nohe said during a forum that the Prince William Committee of 100 held on the effect of DOGE cuts in the first two months of the Trump administration. “This is bad.”

Nohe was less blunt in a recent interview, but he was no less alarmed about the damage to Northern Virginia and its business community.

“Many people in Northern Virginia are suddenly out of a job or nervous that they’re about to be out of a job, and that creates a lot of concern,” he said.

‘A problematic mix’

As the owner of an appliance store, Nohe also is sensitive to the potential effects of tariffs that Trump has imposed on goods imported from many of the United States’ trading partners — including parts necessary for the products he sells — at a time when “customers are not walking through the doors.”

“It’s a really problematic mix for a lot of Northern Virginia businesses,” he said. “We’re going to be looking for candidates, both at the regional and state level, who want Virginia to find a way to stay strong despite these challenges.”

Nohe considers Herrity a friend, as he also does Prince William School Board Chairman Babur Lateef, who is seeking the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor in a six-way primary on June 17.

“There is no question that Pat would have been a very strong ally of our region, at a time when we need allies,” he said.

Republicans are counting on Youngkin, a former business executive from Fairfax, who can’t run for a second term, but is backing Earle-Sears as the next best thing. Both have fully embraced Trump, his cuts to the federal workforce and his tariffs, while trying to reassure Virginia voters that private industry is willing to help dislocated federal workers find jobs and buffer the state’s imperiled economy.

“I think the ticket is going to continue Governor Youngkin’s legacy,” Herrity said on Wednesday. “That’s a record of economic growth and opportunity.”

Former Rep. Tom Davis, R-11th, agrees. “If you run on Youngkin, you’ll be fine.”

But Davis, who represented parts of Fairfax and Prince William counties in Congress from 1995 to 2008, also is realistic about the political challenges that Republicans face, particularly in Northern Virginia.

“The national atmosphere up here doesn’t play well for Republicans,” he said in an interview.

Nohe, who lost to a more conservative Republican in the party primary for board chairman in 2019, said Youngkin is right to encourage businesses to hire displaced federal workers, but suggested publicly that the governor has not done enough to push back on Trump’s policies that hurt the regional economy. Virginia may have more than 200,000 open jobs, but he said relatively few will match the skill set of longtime federal employees suddenly looking for work.

“A lot more than encouragement, we need solutions,” he said.

Right-to-work law

The region’s business community is torn between its concern over the damage that Trump is inflicting and the potential for a Democratic governor to allow changes in state law that they would not like and that that Youngkin has repeatedly blocked. That includes a potential repeal of Virginia’s right-to-work law.

The law, dating to 1947 under then-Gov. Bill Tuck, forbids requiring employees in union-organized workplaces to join the union or pay dues.

The law does not directly affect non-union workplaces, but it has become a cherished principle of Virginia’s business community. The Democratic-controlled General Assembly has repeatedly passed legislation to repeal the law, but Youngkin has vetoed it each time. Last week all six Democrats running for lieutenant governor said they support repealing the law.

Earle-Sears emphasizes the issue in her campaign, while Spanberger has not said how she would respond to a proposed repeal of the law if elected governor. “I guess she’ll cross that bridge when she gets to it,” said Del. Mark Sickles, D-Fairfax, an ally who serves as vice chairman of the House Appropriations Committee.

Davis, the former congressman, said protecting the right-to-work law may be the best weapon Republicans have against Spanberger.

“But for that, she’d be a prohibitive favorite,” he said.

Farnsworth, at the University of Mary Washington, said, “There’s no doubt if Democrats have a good year in Virginia, then there will be more pressure on ending right to work than ever before.”

A sleeper issue

Herrity also said Republicans have a “sleeper issue” in energy because of rising electricity demand, driven largely by the proliferation of data centers in Northern Virginia and increasingly across the state, and the potential cost of policies General Assembly Democrats advanced to move from fossil fuels to renewable forms of energy to generate power.

“It’s going to drive up the cost of electricity and drive down reliability,” he predicted.

But the issue at the front of voters’ minds in Northern Virginia is the danger that even Republicans say Trump’s policies pose to the region’s economy.

“If this becomes a referendum on the (Trump) administration at this point in the term, it’s not good, because of the Northern Virginia factor,” Davis said.

Sickles, a Democrat representing a House district near Herrity’s board of supervisors district in Fairfax, said, “I think Northern Virginia voters are going to vote for sanity over chaos.”

Al Alborn, an independent news columnist in Prince William, said the Committee of 100 forum on “The Domino Effects of DOGE” showed how dominant the issue has become for business leaders in the county.

“I’d say DOGE is the issue up here,” Alborn said. “I’m predicting something of a blue wave in the elections in November.”

All 100 seats in the House of Delegates are up for election in November. Democrats currently hold a 51-49 edge in the chamber.

Eight years ago, in the first year of Trump’s first presidential term, Democrats came within a drawing — in which a Republican won a contest that had ended in a tie — of eliminating a 16-seat edge that Republicans held in the House. Democrats also swept all three statewide offices, with then-Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam winning for governor by about 9 percentage points.

Farnsworth, at the University of Mary Washington, said the Republican ticket appears designed to connect more with voters in the party’s conservative base, now defined by Trump’s “Make America Great Again” populist movement, than people facing the economic consequences of the president’s policies.

“The question that voters are going to be looking at is about current conditions,” he said. “If people have lost their jobs or lost their customers, or think they may, they won’t thank Republicans for Donald Trump’s policies.”

Reassuring those Northern Virginia voters may be the biggest challenge that Earle-Sears and her Republican running mates face.

“Republicans tend not to win in Northern Virginia, but keeping Northern Virginia close is key to Republican success in statewide elections, as Glenn Youngkin demonstrated effectively four years ago,” Farnworth said.

But, he added, “If the Republican Party gets blown out in Northern Virginia, it’s all over statewide.”